Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-10-09 · 20:30 CET
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LLWDWThe score model makes a Dortmund win the most likely outcome at 71%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 59.6% vs 52.9% implied (+6.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dortmund 2.41 – 0.86 Werder Bremen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dortmund win | 71.0% | 68.8% | +2.2% |
| Draw | 18.2% | 17.8% | +0.4% |
| Werder Bremen win | 10.8% | 13.3% | -2.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.4% | 67.9% | -4.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.3% | 47.8% | -6.5% |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | 58.9% | -5.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.4% | 47.1% | -6.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dortmund 41.9 / Werder Bremen 41.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.