Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-10-09 · 20:30 CET
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DDWWLThe score model made a Dortmund win the most likely outcome at 71%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dortmund 2.41 – 0.86 Werder Bremen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dortmund win | 71.0% | 70.6% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 18.2% | 17.1% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Werder Bremen win | 10.8% | 12.3% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.4% | 69.2% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.3% | 49.6% | -8.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | 58.6% | -5.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.4% | 47.9% | -7.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dortmund 41.6 / Werder Bremen 41.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Dortmund vs Werder Bremen in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.