Stuttgart II vs Verl
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-11-08 · 16:30 CET
DWWLD
DDLLLThe score model makes a Verl win the most likely outcome at 38%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 63.0% vs 49.7% implied (+13.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stuttgart II 1.51 – 1.56 Verl.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart II win | 36.5% | 39.4% | -2.9% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 23.3% | +1.8% |
| Verl win | 38.5% | 37.3% | +1.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.4% | 69.9% | -10.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.0% | 50.3% | -13.3% |
| Both teams to score | 62.2% | 70.2% | -8.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.2% | 48.4% | -8.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Stuttgart II 43.3 / Verl 50.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Stuttgart II vs Verl in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.