Meppen vs Regensburg
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-11-08 · 13:30 CET
DWDWD
WDDLWThe score model makes a Meppen win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 71.3% vs 54.0% implied (+17.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Meppen 1.51 – 1.20 Regensburg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meppen win | 43.8% | 39.9% | +4.0% |
| Draw | 26.6% | 24.1% | +2.6% |
| Regensburg win | 29.5% | 36.1% | -6.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 65.9% | -15.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 46.0% | -17.2% |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | 67.1% | -12.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.0% | 45.6% | -13.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Meppen 13 / Regensburg 37.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Meppen vs Regensburg in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.