RW Essen vs Alemannia Aachen
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-11-07 · 14:00 CET
DWLWW
LLWWWThe score model makes an RW Essen win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 63.0% vs 57.8% implied (+5.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: RW Essen 1.82 – 1.26 Alemannia Aachen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| RW Essen win | 49.9% | 51.1% | -1.2% |
| Draw | 24.1% | 23.5% | +0.5% |
| Alemannia Aachen win | 26.1% | 25.3% | +0.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.4% | 61.8% | -2.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.0% | 42.2% | -5.2% |
| Both teams to score | 60.6% | 62.4% | -1.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.0% | 43.0% | -2.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: RW Essen 50.6 / Alemannia Aachen 43.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open RW Essen vs Alemannia Aachen in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.