Hansa Rostock vs Grossaspach
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-11-07 · 14:00 CET
WLLDL
LDWLLThe score model makes a Hansa Rostock win the most likely outcome at 63%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 61.3% vs 54.7% implied (+6.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hansa Rostock 2.15 – 1.00 Grossaspach.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hansa Rostock win | 63.3% | 58.1% | +5.2% |
| Draw | 20.7% | 21.4% | -0.7% |
| Grossaspach win | 16.0% | 20.5% | -4.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | 64.8% | -3.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.7% | 45.3% | -6.6% |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | 61.8% | -5.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.8% | 44.8% | -3.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Hansa Rostock 43.4 / Grossaspach 11.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hansa Rostock vs Grossaspach in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.