Viktoria Koln vs Saarbrucken
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-11-06 · 19:00 CET
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DLWLWThe score model makes a Viktoria Koln win the most likely outcome at 54%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 65.4% vs 54.6% implied (+10.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Viktoria Koln 1.85 – 1.12 Saarbrucken.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Viktoria Koln win | 53.7% | 52.5% | +1.2% |
| Draw | 23.8% | 23.0% | +0.8% |
| Saarbrucken win | 22.4% | 24.4% | -2.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.0% | 64.9% | -7.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.6% | 45.4% | -10.8% |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | 64.0% | -6.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.5% | 45.1% | -3.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Viktoria Koln 50.6 / Saarbrucken 50.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Viktoria Koln vs Saarbrucken in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.