Magdeburg vs St. Pauli
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-11-08 · 13:30 CET
DWLWD
DWDDLThe score model makes a Magdeburg win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Magdeburg win — 45.7% vs 40.1% implied (+5.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Magdeburg 1.68 – 1.31 St. Pauli.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Magdeburg win | 45.7% | 40.1% | +5.6% |
| Draw | 24.8% | 26.0% | -1.2% |
| St. Pauli win | 29.5% | 33.9% | -4.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% | 58.9% | -1.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.9% | 38.4% | -3.5% |
| Both teams to score | 59.7% | 62.2% | -2.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.7% | 40.7% | -0.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Magdeburg 44.5 / St. Pauli 15.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Magdeburg vs St. Pauli in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.