Heidenheim vs Hannover
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-11-08 · 13:30 CET
DDLDL
WLDLWThe score model makes a Heidenheim win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 57.6% vs 52.4% implied (+5.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Heidenheim 1.88 – 1.43 Hannover.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim win | 47.8% | 45.4% | +2.4% |
| Draw | 23.1% | 24.7% | -1.6% |
| Hannover win | 29.1% | 29.9% | -0.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.5% | 67.1% | -2.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.4% | 47.6% | -5.2% |
| Both teams to score | 65.0% | 68.1% | -3.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.8% | 46.5% | -4.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Heidenheim 10.8 / Hannover 44.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Heidenheim vs Hannover in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.