Bochum vs Karlsruher SC
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-11-08 · 13:30 CET
LLLDW
LLWLWThe score model makes a Bochum win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 62.5% vs 57.9% implied (+4.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bochum 1.79 – 1.31 Karlsruher SC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 48.2% | 52.0% | -3.8% |
| Draw | 23.9% | 23.2% | +0.8% |
| Karlsruher SC win | 27.9% | 24.9% | +3.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% | 61.7% | -1.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.6% | 40.4% | -2.8% |
| Both teams to score | 61.3% | 62.0% | -0.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.5% | 42.1% | -4.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Bochum 28.5 / Karlsruher SC 44.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bochum vs Karlsruher SC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.