Fleury-Merogis vs Rouen
National, France · 2026-11-21 · 14:45 CET
WWWDL
LWLWWThe score model makes a Fleury-Merogis win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fleury-Merogis 1.59 – 1.15 Rouen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fleury-Merogis win | 45.9% | — | — |
| Draw | 28.3% | — | — |
| Rouen win | 25.8% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.6% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.2% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Fleury-Merogis 25.7 / Rouen 42.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Fleury-Merogis vs Rouen in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.