Villefranche vs Rouen
National, France · 2026-08-29 · 14:45 CET
LDLLL
DWWLWThe score model made a Rouen win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Villefranche 1.00 – 1.34 Rouen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villefranche win | 26.7% | 28.9% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.4% | 28.2% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Rouen win | 42.9% | 42.9% | +0.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.4% | 47.2% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.8% | 27.1% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.1% | 51.9% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.6% | 32.3% | -0.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Villefranche 41.6 / Rouen 39.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.