Grenoble vs Reims
Ligue 2, France · 2026-11-06 · 20:00 CET
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WDDWDThe score model makes a Reims win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Grenoble win — 26.4% vs 24.3% implied (+2.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Grenoble 1.10 – 1.58 Reims.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grenoble win | 26.4% | 24.3% | +2.2% |
| Draw | 25.3% | 27.7% | -2.4% |
| Reims win | 48.3% | 48.0% | +0.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.3% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.9% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Grenoble 45.9 / Reims 28.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Grenoble vs Reims in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.