Dijon vs Red Star
Ligue 2, France · 2026-11-06 · 20:00 CET
WWLLW
WWWLLThe score model makes a Dijon win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Dijon win — 41.5% vs 35.9% implied (+5.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dijon 1.58 – 1.41 Red Star.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 41.5% | 35.9% | +5.6% |
| Draw | 24.5% | 27.7% | -3.2% |
| Red Star win | 34.0% | 36.4% | -2.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.6% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.2% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.3% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Dijon 12.1 / Red Star 37.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Dijon vs Red Star in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.