Nantes W vs Lens W
Division 1 Women, France · 2026-11-13 · 19:00 CET
DWWLD
LLDDLThe score model makes a Nantes W win the most likely outcome at 64%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Nantes W win — 63.6% vs 56.6% implied (+7.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nantes W 1.97 – 0.80 Lens W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes W win | 63.6% | 56.6% | +7.0% |
| Draw | 23.1% | 23.9% | -0.8% |
| Lens W win | 13.3% | 19.5% | -6.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 56.5% | -4.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.1% | 35.0% | -4.8% |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | 55.3% | -6.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.0% | 38.7% | -1.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Nantes W 25.8 / Lens W 19.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Nantes W vs Lens W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.