Montpellier W vs Fleury 91 W
Division 1 Women, France · 2026-11-14 · 18:30 CET
DDLLL
LDDWWThe score model makes a Fleury 91 W win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 73.8% vs 66.6% implied (+7.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Montpellier W 1.01 – 1.58 Fleury 91 W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier W win | 22.9% | 21.1% | +1.8% |
| Draw | 28.0% | 24.7% | +3.2% |
| Fleury 91 W win | 49.1% | 54.2% | -5.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | 54.2% | -6.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.2% | 33.4% | -7.2% |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | 54.4% | -2.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.1% | 37.2% | -5.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Montpellier W 30 / Fleury 91 W 30 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Montpellier W vs Fleury 91 W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.