Marseille W vs PSG W
Division 1 Women, France · 2026-11-14 · 21:00 CET
DDLWW
WLWDWThe score model makes a PSG W win the most likely outcome at 68%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: PSG W win — 67.8% vs 59.1% implied (+8.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Marseille W 0.85 – 2.23 PSG W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille W win | 11.8% | 18.4% | -6.6% |
| Draw | 20.4% | 22.5% | -2.1% |
| PSG W win | 67.8% | 59.1% | +8.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | 55.0% | +4.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.0% | 34.0% | +3.0% |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | 52.8% | -0.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.8% | 38.0% | +0.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Marseille W 19.7 / PSG W 30.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Marseille W vs PSG W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.