KaPa vs Mikkeli
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-10-09 · 18:00 CET
DDLWW
LWDWDThe score model makes a Mikkeli win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Mikkeli win — 38.7% vs 30.3% implied (+8.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: KaPa 1.60 – 1.61 Mikkeli.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| KaPa win | 38.2% | 45.8% | -7.6% |
| Draw | 23.1% | 23.9% | -0.8% |
| Mikkeli win | 38.7% | 30.3% | +8.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.2% | 60.5% | +1.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.9% | 40.3% | -0.3% |
| Both teams to score | 63.7% | 62.1% | +1.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.6% | 41.5% | +5.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: KaPa 40.4 / Mikkeli 28.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.