Klubi 04 vs Mikkeli
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-08-22 · 18:00 CET
WLLLD
LDWLLThe score model makes a Klubi 04 win the most likely outcome at 47%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 77.5% vs 62.3% implied (+15.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Klubi 04 1.41 – 1.00 Mikkeli.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Klubi 04 win | 47.1% | 42.7% | +4.4% |
| Draw | 25.6% | 26.5% | -0.9% |
| Mikkeli win | 27.4% | 30.9% | -3.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.5% | 57.8% | -14.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.5% | 37.7% | -15.2% |
| Both teams to score | 47.3% | 60.4% | -13.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.5% | 39.6% | -10.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Klubi 04 29.3 / Mikkeli 25.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.