Klubi 04 vs Mikkeli
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-08-22 · 18:00 CET
WDLLW
LWDWDThe score model made a Klubi 04 win the most likely outcome at 47%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 4:3 (HT 4:3) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Klubi 04 1.42 – 1.00 Mikkeli.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Klubi 04 win | 47.3% | 43.7% | +3.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 25.8% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Mikkeli win | 27.2% | 30.4% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.5% | 58.6% | -15.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.5% | 37.8% | -15.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 47.2% | 61.2% | -14.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.6% | 39.9% | -10.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Klubi 04 29.2 / Mikkeli 25.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.