Ekenas vs KTP
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-08-22 · 14:00 CET
LDDLD
WWWWDThe score model made a KTP win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ekenas 1.35 – 1.93 KTP.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ekenas win | 27.3% | 23.6% | +3.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.2% | 24.0% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| KTP win | 51.5% | 52.5% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.5% | 58.9% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.4% | 38.0% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% | 59.2% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.0% | 40.6% | -0.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ekenas 31.7 / KTP 23 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.