PK-35 vs JaPS
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-08-21 · 18:00 CET
WDWLD
DWLWLThe score model made a PK-35 win the most likely outcome at 57%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: PK-35 1.67 – 0.85 JaPS.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PK-35 win | 57.3% | 54.0% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.1% | 25.5% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| JaPS win | 19.7% | 20.4% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | 50.9% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.7% | 30.7% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.0% | 52.0% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.1% | 35.1% | -10.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: PK-35 35.5 / JaPS 38 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.