Haka vs SJK Akatemia
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-08-21 · 17:30 CET
LLDWL
LLDLDThe score model made a Haka win the most likely outcome at 67%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Haka 2.15 – 0.86 SJK Akatemia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haka win | 67.3% | 70.0% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 18.4% | 18.1% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| SJK Akatemia win | 14.3% | 12.0% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | 65.7% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.5% | 45.5% | -10.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.5% | 55.1% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.4% | 45.4% | -11.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Haka 16.7 / SJK Akatemia 38.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.