Haka vs SJK Akatemia
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-08-21 · 17:30 CET
DWWWW
DDLLWThe score model makes a Haka win the most likely outcome at 67%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 65.8% vs 55.5% implied (+10.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Haka 2.16 – 0.86 SJK Akatemia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Haka win | 67.5% | 70.7% | -3.2% |
| Draw | 18.3% | 17.8% | +0.4% |
| SJK Akatemia win | 14.2% | 11.5% | +2.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.1% | 64.3% | -6.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.6% | 44.4% | -8.7% |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | 53.3% | -2.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.2% | 44.5% | -10.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Haka 16.8 / SJK Akatemia 38.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.