KaPa vs Jippo
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-08-20 · 17:00 CET
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WDWLLThe score model makes an Jippo win the most likely outcome at 56%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: KaPa win — 22.0% vs 18.8% implied (+3.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: KaPa 1.06 – 1.85 Jippo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| KaPa win | 22.0% | 18.8% | +3.2% |
| Draw | 21.6% | 24.1% | -2.5% |
| Jippo win | 56.5% | 57.1% | -0.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.6% | 52.7% | +3.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.3% | 33.4% | -0.1% |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 53.1% | +1.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.2% | 36.4% | +0.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: KaPa 38.1 / Jippo 35.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.