Mikkeli vs Ekenas
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-08-16 · 16:00 CET
DLDWL
LLDWWThe score model makes an Ekenas win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 69.9% vs 61.7% implied (+8.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mikkeli 1.30 – 1.47 Ekenas.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mikkeli win | 34.2% | 34.8% | -0.6% |
| Draw | 24.2% | 26.8% | -2.6% |
| Ekenas win | 41.6% | 38.4% | +3.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | 56.1% | -3.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.2% | 36.1% | -5.9% |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | 60.2% | -4.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.1% | 38.3% | -8.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mikkeli 24.9 / Ekenas 31.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.