Mikkeli vs Ekenas
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-08-16 · 16:00 CET
LWDWD
LDDLDThe score model made an Ekenas win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mikkeli 1.30 – 1.49 Ekenas.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikkeli win | 33.7% | 35.4% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.0% | 26.3% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Ekenas win | 42.3% | 38.2% | +4.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 57.7% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% | 36.9% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | 61.1% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.3% | 35.5% | -5.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mikkeli 24.7 / Ekenas 31.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.