PK-35 vs Klubi 04
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-08-15 · 17:00 CET
WWDLW
DWLLLThe score model makes a PK-35 win the most likely outcome at 54%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 41%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 79.3% vs 65.5% implied (+13.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: PK-35 1.52 – 0.81 Klubi 04.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PK-35 win | 54.5% | 56.5% | -2.0% |
| Draw | 24.8% | 24.2% | +0.6% |
| Klubi 04 win | 20.7% | 19.2% | +1.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.3% | 54.3% | -13.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.7% | 34.5% | -13.8% |
| Both teams to score | 43.0% | 53.8% | -10.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.7% | 37.3% | -11.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: PK-35 35.1 / Klubi 04 28.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.