KTP vs KaPa
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-08-15 · 19:00 CET
WLDWW
DLLLLThe score model makes a KTP win the most likely outcome at 77%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 78%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 3.5 goals — 59.6% vs 48.8% implied (+10.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: KTP 3.06 – 1.09 KaPa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| KTP win | 76.7% | 73.8% | +3.0% |
| Draw | 12.8% | 15.9% | -3.1% |
| KaPa win | 10.5% | 10.3% | +0.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78.4% | 68.6% | +9.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 59.6% | 48.8% | +10.8% |
| Both teams to score | 63.2% | 54.5% | +8.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 85.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 53.2% | 46.9% | +6.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: KTP 22.5 / KaPa 37.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.