KuPS vs Inter Turku
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-11-08 · 14:00 CET
LWDDL
WLWLWThe score model makes a KuPS win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). The data's biggest gap to the market: KuPS win — 38.6% vs 23.3% implied (+15.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: KuPS 1.24 – 1.14 Inter Turku.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| KuPS win | 38.6% | 23.3% | +15.3% |
| Draw | 28.1% | 24.8% | +3.3% |
| Inter Turku win | 33.3% | 51.9% | -18.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.5% | 55.9% | -13.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.8% | 35.1% | -13.4% |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | 57.1% | -8.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.0% | 38.3% | -10.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: KuPS 40.1 / Inter Turku 40.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open KuPS vs Inter Turku in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.