HJK vs AC Oulu
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-11-08 · 14:00 CET
WWDWW
LWWDWThe score model makes an HJK win the most likely outcome at 72%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 55.4% vs 47.9% implied (+7.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: HJK 2.51 – 0.91 AC Oulu.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| HJK win | 72.2% | 82.2% | -10.0% |
| Draw | 16.4% | 11.7% | +4.8% |
| AC Oulu win | 11.4% | 6.1% | +5.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.4% | 71.5% | -5.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.6% | 52.1% | -7.5% |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | 48.0% | +7.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.5% | 50.1% | -4.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: HJK 40.2 / AC Oulu 40.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open HJK vs AC Oulu in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.