Gnistan vs VPS
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-11-08 · 14:00 CET
LLLDL
WLLDLThe score model makes a Gnistan win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 71.8% vs 61.8% implied (+9.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gnistan 1.56 – 1.12 VPS.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gnistan win | 47.4% | 45.6% | +1.9% |
| Draw | 25.5% | 25.1% | +0.4% |
| VPS win | 27.0% | 29.3% | -2.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.2% | 59.2% | -9.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.2% | 38.2% | -9.9% |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | 60.9% | -7.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.4% | 40.7% | -6.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Gnistan 38.3 / VPS 40.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Gnistan vs VPS in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.