Ilves vs Mariehamn
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-09 · 17:00 CET
LWLLL
LLWWWThe score model made an Ilves win the most likely outcome at 77%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ilves 2.70 – 0.81 Mariehamn.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilves win | 77.2% | 72.4% | +4.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 14.3% | 16.8% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Mariehamn win | 8.5% | 10.9% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.0% | 64.5% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.4% | 43.8% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 52.6% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.8% | 44.4% | -2.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ilves 33.6 / Mariehamn 33.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.