Ilves vs Mariehamn
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-09 · 15:00
The score model makes a Ilves win the most likely outcome at 78%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 68%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ilves 2.72 – 0.80 Mariehamn.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ilves win | 77.5% | 71.8% | +5.8% |
| Draw | 14.1% | 16.7% | -2.6% |
| Mariehamn win | 8.4% | 11.5% | -3.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.4% | 66.3% | +2.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.9% | 45.5% | +1.4% |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 54.2% | -2.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.6% | 45.2% | -2.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ilves 33.7 / Mariehamn 33.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.