AC Oulu vs HJK
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-09 · 18:00 CET
WDLLL
LWWDDThe score model made an HJK win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AC Oulu 1.26 – 1.90 HJK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Oulu win | 25.1% | 28.4% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.7% | 26.1% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| HJK win | 52.2% | 45.4% | +6.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.3% | 56.7% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.0% | 36.0% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | 59.3% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.2% | 38.4% | -9.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AC Oulu 33.5 / HJK 33.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.