Jaro vs VPS
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-08 · 18:00 CET
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WLWLLThe score model made a VPS win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jaro 1.06 – 1.52 VPS.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaro win | 26.3% | 24.1% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.1% | 25.8% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| VPS win | 47.6% | 50.1% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.8% | 53.8% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.1% | 33.2% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | 56.0% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.6% | 36.6% | -5.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jaro 25.9 / VPS 33.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.