SJK vs Gnistan
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-07 · 18:00 CET
WDLLD
WDDWDThe score model made an SJK win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: SJK 1.79 – 1.35 Gnistan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJK win | 47.8% | 46.1% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.5% | 25.3% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Gnistan win | 28.8% | 28.6% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.6% | 61.0% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.3% | 40.5% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 61.8% | 62.9% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.8% | 41.4% | -9.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: SJK 33.7 / Gnistan 31 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.