SJK vs Gnistan
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-07 · 16:00
The score model makes a SJK win the most likely outcome at 48%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 61%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: SJK 1.79 – 1.34 Gnistan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| SJK win | 47.8% | 42.9% | +4.8% |
| Draw | 23.5% | 25.8% | -2.3% |
| Gnistan win | 28.7% | 31.3% | -2.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.6% | 59.9% | +0.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.2% | 39.3% | -1.1% |
| Both teams to score | 61.8% | 62.4% | -0.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.7% | 41.1% | -9.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: SJK 33.9 / Gnistan 31.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.