Tammeka vs Parnu JK Vaprus
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-11-07 · 11:30 CET
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DLLDLThe score model makes a Tammeka win the most likely outcome at 54%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Tammeka win — 54.0% vs 39.7% implied (+14.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tammeka 1.94 – 1.28 Parnu JK Vaprus.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tammeka win | 54.0% | 39.7% | +14.3% |
| Draw | 19.3% | 24.7% | -5.3% |
| Parnu JK Vaprus win | 26.6% | 35.6% | -9.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.4% | 64.3% | -1.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.2% | 43.5% | -3.4% |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | 66.0% | -5.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.1% | 44.6% | -5.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Tammeka 53.9 / Parnu JK Vaprus 53.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Tammeka vs Parnu JK Vaprus in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.