Narva vs Harju JK Laagri
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-11-07 · 11:30 CET
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WWWLLThe score model makes a Harju JK Laagri win the most likely outcome at 44%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 66.9% vs 60.3% implied (+6.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Narva 1.35 – 1.56 Harju JK Laagri.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Narva win | 34.6% | 33.1% | +1.4% |
| Draw | 21.4% | 25.3% | -3.9% |
| Harju JK Laagri win | 44.0% | 41.5% | +2.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.5% | 60.6% | -5.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.1% | 39.7% | -6.6% |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | 62.9% | -6.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.6% | 41.6% | -5.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Narva 53.6 / Harju JK Laagri 46.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Narva vs Harju JK Laagri in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.