Levadia vs Kalju
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-11-07 · 11:30 CET
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DLWWWThe score model makes a Levadia win the most likely outcome at 67%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: BTTS: No — 50.4% vs 35.8% implied (+14.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Levadia 2.09 – 0.87 Kalju.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Levadia win | 66.8% | 56.0% | +10.8% |
| Draw | 17.3% | 22.2% | -4.9% |
| Kalju win | 16.0% | 21.8% | -5.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.7% | 66.3% | -9.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.3% | 45.9% | -11.6% |
| Both teams to score | 49.6% | 64.2% | -14.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.8% | 45.4% | -7.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Levadia 53.6 / Kalju 53.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Levadia vs Kalju in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.