Narva vs Kalju
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-08-08 · 16:00
The score model makes an Kalju win the most likely outcome at 62%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Narva 0.88 – 1.87 Kalju.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Narva win | 18.1% | 16.7% | +1.4% |
| Draw | 20.4% | 21.3% | -0.9% |
| Kalju win | 61.5% | 62.0% | -0.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.8% | 59.6% | -7.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.6% | 39.6% | -10.0% |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | 55.0% | -6.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.1% | 41.0% | -0.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Narva 49 / Kalju 49 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.