Narva vs Kalju
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-08-08 · 18:00 CET
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LLLLWThe score model made a Kalju win the most likely outcome at 61%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Narva 0.88 – 1.86 Kalju.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Narva win | 18.2% | 21.4% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.4% | 24.3% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Kalju win | 61.4% | 54.2% | +7.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% | 56.1% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.4% | 36.0% | -6.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% | 56.2% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.0% | 38.7% | +1.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Narva 48.8 / Kalju 48.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.