Kuressaare vs Harju JK Laagri
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-08-07 · 18:00 CET
DWLLD
WLLWDThe score model made a Harju JK Laagri win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kuressaare 1.28 – 1.37 Harju JK Laagri.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuressaare win | 36.1% | 34.5% | +1.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.0% | 26.6% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Harju JK Laagri win | 39.9% | 38.9% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.4% | 56.0% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.5% | 35.7% | -8.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% | 59.9% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.3% | 38.6% | -4.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kuressaare 48.9 / Harju JK Laagri 39.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.