Paide vs Kuressaare
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-08-02 · 14:00
The score model makes a Paide win the most likely outcome at 70%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Paide 2.07 – 0.71 Kuressaare.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paide win | 69.8% | 61.1% | +8.8% |
| Draw | 17.7% | 21.6% | -3.9% |
| Kuressaare win | 12.4% | 17.3% | -4.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.5% | 60.8% | -8.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.3% | 39.9% | -9.6% |
| Both teams to score | 43.6% | 57.2% | -13.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.5% | 41.8% | -3.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Paide 48.4 / Kuressaare 48.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.