Paide vs Kuressaare
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-08-02 · 16:00 CET
WWLWL
LDWLLThe score model made a Paide win the most likely outcome at 70%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Paide 2.07 – 0.71 Kuressaare.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paide win | 69.8% | 57.7% | +12.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 17.7% | 23.0% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Kuressaare win | 12.4% | 19.3% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.5% | 59.9% | -7.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.3% | 39.3% | -9.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.6% | 57.8% | -14.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.5% | 41.1% | -2.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Paide 48.4 / Kuressaare 48.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.