Sunderland vs Brighton
Premier League, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
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LDWWWThe score model made a Brighton win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sunderland 1.22 – 1.46 Brighton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 30.6% | 30.9% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.9% | 27.8% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Brighton win | 41.6% | 41.3% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.1% | 52.2% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.1% | 31.1% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.2% | 57.0% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.6% | 35.5% | -2.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sunderland 27.3 / Brighton 46.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.