Chelsea vs Bournemouth
Premier League, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
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DDDLLThe score model made a Chelsea win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 5:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chelsea 1.72 – 1.35 Bournemouth.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 45.3% | 52.3% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 24.4% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Bournemouth win | 29.3% | 23.3% | +6.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | 60.1% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.9% | 39.5% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 61.8% | 61.3% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.6% | 41.1% | -1.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chelsea 46.8 / Bournemouth 46.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.