Aston Villa vs Brentford
Premier League, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
LLDLW
WDDDWThe score model makes an Aston Villa win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Aston Villa win — 41.0% vs 35.8% implied (+5.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aston Villa 1.57 – 1.38 Brentford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 41.0% | 35.8% | +5.2% |
| Draw | 26.4% | 27.0% | -0.6% |
| Brentford win | 32.6% | 37.2% | -4.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.6% | 56.7% | -0.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.2% | 36.2% | -2.0% |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | 60.4% | -0.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.9% | 38.0% | -5.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aston Villa 47.1 / Brentford 47.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.