Arsenal vs Leeds
Premier League, England · 2026-10-10 · 13:30 CET
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WDDWDThe score model makes an Arsenal win the most likely outcome at 64%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 74.7% vs 63.2% implied (+11.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arsenal 1.90 – 0.73 Leeds.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 64.3% | 68.0% | -3.7% |
| Draw | 23.0% | 19.8% | +3.2% |
| Leeds win | 12.7% | 12.2% | +0.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | 54.7% | -5.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.0% | 33.3% | -6.4% |
| Both teams to score | 44.8% | 46.8% | -2.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.3% | 36.8% | -11.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Arsenal 47.1 / Leeds 30 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.