Southend vs AFC Fylde
National League, England · 2026-10-03 · 16:00 CET
WWLDW
WLWLLThe score model made a Southend win the most likely outcome at 60%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Southend 2.07 – 1.07 AFC Fylde.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southend win | 60.2% | 50.6% | +9.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.8% | 22.9% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| AFC Fylde win | 19.0% | 26.5% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.8% | 65.5% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.4% | 45.4% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | 65.1% | -7.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.3% | 45.4% | -9.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Southend 61.9 / AFC Fylde 30.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.