Kidderminster vs Sutton
National League, England · 2026-10-03 · 16:00 CET
WDLLD
WDDLDThe score model made a Kidderminster win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kidderminster 1.39 – 0.90 Sutton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kidderminster win | 48.4% | 38.2% | +10.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.3% | 28.5% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| Sutton win | 24.3% | 33.3% | -9.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.2% | 45.9% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.9% | 25.5% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.6% | 51.6% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.5% | 31.1% | -1.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kidderminster 17 / Sutton 50.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.