Eastleigh vs Woking
National League, England · 2026-10-03 · 16:00 CET
LWLDL
DDWLWThe score model made a Woking win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Eastleigh 1.25 – 1.38 Woking.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastleigh win | 33.9% | 33.2% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.2% | 26.1% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Woking win | 39.9% | 40.7% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.9% | 55.9% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.0% | 35.4% | -8.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | 59.3% | -5.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 38.3% | -8.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Eastleigh 60.2 / Woking 60.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.