Aldershot vs Carlisle
National League, England · 2026-10-03 · 16:00 CET
DLWLL
DLLWWThe score model made a Carlisle win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aldershot 1.46 – 1.93 Carlisle.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldershot win | 29.2% | 26.6% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.0% | 23.8% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Carlisle win | 48.8% | 49.5% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.9% | 62.0% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.0% | 41.7% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 65.7% | 62.9% | +2.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.1% | 42.5% | +5.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aldershot 60.3 / Carlisle 37.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.