Tamworth vs Sutton
National League, England · 2026-09-30 · 20:45 CET
LWLWW
WDDLDThe score model made a Tamworth win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tamworth 1.75 – 1.40 Sutton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamworth win | 46.0% | 41.1% | +4.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.2% | 25.6% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Sutton win | 30.8% | 33.2% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.9% | 59.2% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.5% | 39.0% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.1% | 62.1% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.8% | 40.4% | -2.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tamworth 50.1 / Sutton 50.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.