Woking vs Solihull Moors
National League, England · 2026-09-29 · 20:45 CET
DDWLW
WLLWLThe score model made a Woking win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 2:4 (HT 2:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Woking 1.73 – 1.06 Solihull Moors.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woking win | 53.2% | 49.1% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.6% | 24.8% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Solihull Moors win | 23.2% | 26.0% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 58.9% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.7% | 38.7% | -8.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | 60.7% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.0% | 40.7% | -10.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Woking 59.8 / Solihull Moors 59.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.