Gateshead vs Altrincham
National League, England · 2026-09-29 · 20:45 CET
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WWWWLThe score model made an Altrincham win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gateshead 1.39 – 1.57 Altrincham.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gateshead win | 33.7% | 20.7% | +13.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.3% | 22.7% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Altrincham win | 42.0% | 56.6% | -14.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.8% | 58.5% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.4% | 37.8% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | 57.4% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.6% | 39.8% | +7.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gateshead 59.9 / Altrincham 59.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.