Boreham Wood vs Kidderminster
National League, England · 2026-09-29 · 20:00 CET
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WDLLDThe score model made a Boreham Wood win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Boreham Wood 1.61 – 0.92 Kidderminster.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boreham Wood win | 53.7% | 68.1% | -14.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 19.3% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Kidderminster win | 21.5% | 12.6% | +8.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.5% | 62.1% | -15.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.0% | 42.0% | -17.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.2% | 54.0% | -5.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.7% | 41.8% | -4.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Boreham Wood 46.2 / Kidderminster 16.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.